The New York Times has created a series of data visualizations called “Who Will Be President?” forecasting the state-by-state outcomes of the presidential election based on the latest state and national polls. By aggregating data from multiple sources, the site compares predictions from different forecasting organizations and identifies certain states as likely voting Democratic, Republican, or “tossup” when it’s too close to call. An interactive visualization allows the user to choose the winners in ten competitive states, illustrating the potential paths to victory for each candidate and the likelihood of those happening. Based on this data, Republican candidate Donald Trump has the more difficult path with a 24 percent probability of victory dependent on winning key states such as Florida.
Picturing Probable Outcomes in the U.S. Presidential Election
Alexander Kostura is the 2016 Google public policy fellow at the Center for Data Innovation. Alex is passionate about information and communications technologies as tools for inclusive economic growth, good governance, and social welfare. He has most recently conducted research in corporate data sharing for social good, specifically in international development and humanitarian response. Alex holds a B.S. in foreign service from Georgetown University and an M.A. in law and diplomacy from the Fletcher School at Tufts University.
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